Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 18.008349 20.961171 24.194256 27.989965 32.316836 37.088018 42.739925
2024-10-20 12.696432 16.597274 21.320770 27.427804 35.077181 44.301102 56.221142
2024-10-27 9.281146 13.333040 18.652937 26.075434 36.077107 48.988135 66.799036
2024-11-03 8.034491 12.452769 18.640351 27.806419 40.877307 58.653515 84.417505
2024-11-10 7.273171 12.034255 19.079646 30.057900 46.470962 69.774845 104.943577
2024-11-17 6.200430 10.921059 18.281768 30.309732 49.100895 76.861905 120.334799
2024-11-24 5.211844 9.744560 17.171765 29.862612 50.517872 82.171353 133.446920
2024-12-01 4.339001 8.595553 15.911195 28.955007 51.022005 86.020341 144.530203
2024-12-08 3.764251 7.865850 15.230580 28.880198 52.791914 91.900111 159.141157
2024-12-15 3.325491 7.308931 14.761966 29.083168 54.994981 98.589905 175.493635
2024-12-22 2.716834 6.309542 13.338301 27.379376 53.676076 99.266125 181.896986
2024-12-29 2.501551 6.077025 13.330078 28.280010 57.062450 108.166936 202.798722
2025-01-05 2.335935 5.949488 13.562490 29.772545 61.882145 120.306564 230.885864
2025-01-12 1.989202 5.357555 12.776390 29.182669 62.769535 125.627133 247.614961
2025-01-19 1.631947 4.663277 11.659065 27.752920 61.842964 127.516368 258.276557
2025-01-26 1.560005 4.658095 12.058825 29.584265 67.639918 142.506007 294.347685
2025-02-02 1.526053 4.744318 12.677924 31.965190 74.795585 160.656803 337.700986
2025-02-09 1.366840 4.459985 12.376719 32.231445 77.501877 170.281961 365.324647
2025-02-16 1.189674 4.085006 11.792510 31.758727 78.543744 176.632361 386.957144
2025-02-23 1.015035 3.675148 11.049832 30.799039 78.381687 180.468392 403.785079
2025-03-02 0.901730 3.426356 10.687082 30.719931 80.200473 188.555037 429.812439
2025-03-09 0.813388 3.236716 10.453563 30.934564 82.717184 198.305594 459.947374
2025-03-16 0.668000 2.816388 9.498165 29.132612 80.219073 196.954125 466.548261